Texas has absorbed one of the largest apartment construction booms in the country, and 2026 is shaping up to be the year that supply and demand finally come back into balance, particularly in our core markets of Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth.
Deliveries are slowing statewide
Statewide completions are projected to settle at roughly 45,000 to 50,000 units annually across 2026 and 2027, the lowest delivery volume the state has seen since the early 2010s. That moderation is a big part of why forecasters expect a gradual resumption of rent growth later this year and into 2027.
Houston is leading the recovery
Houston has emerged as one of the strongest-performing metros in the state for near-term leasing. Third-quarter absorption reached 10,293 units, pushing average occupancy to 90.0%, the highest level the market has seen in four years. Several 2026 forecasts single out Houston as a top candidate for rent growth exceeding 4.9% heading into 2027, driven by solid demand and moderating new supply.
Dallas-Fort Worth is a step behind, but stabilizing
Dallas-Fort Worth is further along in the stabilization process than markets like Austin, with more consistent occupancy and pricing trends, though it still trails Houston on near-term momentum. Concessions remain elevated across Texas’s major metros, Austin leads the state, followed closely by Dallas, with landlords offering anywhere from six to eight weeks of free rent, and as much as ten to twelve weeks in some submarkets. Those concessions are expected to persist through at least mid-2026.
For owners and operators active in Houston and Dallas, the message is consistent: the supply glut is finally easing, and disciplined operators who held onto occupancy through the downturn are positioned to benefit first as the market tightens.
